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中国食品:强大的创新能使品牌历久弥新,上调至“买入”

发布时间:2019-09-16    研究机构:国泰君安证券

Soid revenue growth with strong improvement in profitabiity. TheCompany’s 1H19revenue increased 9.8% YoY to RMB9,551miion, with saesvoume up 8% YoY. Saes in sparking products and botted water increased9.5% YoY and 21.0% YoY, respectivey. Benefiting from higher ASP,improvement in packaging structure and VAT cut, the Company’s gross marginwas up 0.5ppt YoY to 35.5%. Due to improved operating efficiency, theCompany’s distribution expenses ratio was down 1.0ppt YoY. Excuding theone-off compensation income of RMB52miion from Coca-Coa in 1H18, ChinaFoods' 1H19core EBIT surged by 32.4% YoY based on our cacuation. ChinaFoods’ 1H19reported sharehoders’ profit increased 15.0% YoY to RMB290miion, better than expected.

Voume and ASP both improved. As a market eader, Coca-Coa is working oneading consumption upgrade by introducing more ow-sugar products and smapackage products. As a resut, China Foods’ product mix improved consideraby.In 1H19, China Foods sti gained market share in the booming carbonateddrinks market. The Company's botted water priced at RMB2recordedimpressive saes growth. China Foods achieved efficiency improvement insuppy chains and newy acquired pants. Performance of the Company's newproducts has been promising.

We expect that the Company can achieve its ow doube-digit top-ine growthguidance in 2019. On the back of Coca-Coa's strong innovation, the Companywi continue to improve its product mix. We expect that China Foods' revenuegrowth and profitabiity enhancement wi be visibe. Therefore, we upgradeinvestment rating to "Buy" and raise TP to HK$4.30which represents 23.9x2019PER, 21.4x 2020PER and 19.0x 2021PER.

收入稳健增长,盈利能力大幅改善。2019年上半年公司收入同比增长9.8%至人民币95.51亿元,销售量增长8%。汽水和瓶装水销售分别同比增长9.5%和21.0%。由于平均售价上升,包装结构改善和增值税的下调,公司毛利率录得同比0.5个百分点的增长至35.5%。由于经营效率改善,公司分销费用占比同比降低1.0个百分点。除去2018年上半年公司获得来自可口可乐的人民币52百万元的补偿收入,经我们调整中国食品2019年上半年核心EBIT 同比增长32.4%。中国食品2019年上半年报告股东净利同比增长15.0%至人民币2.90亿元,好于预期。

量价齐升。作为市场领导者,可口可乐致力于通过引入更多低糖产品和小包装产品来领导行业消费升级。因此中国食品的产品结构改善明显。2019年上半年中国食品仍然从快速增长的碳酸饮料市场获得市场份额的增长。公司2元水取得相当惊艳的销售增长。中国食品实现供应链和新收购瓶装厂效率的提升。公司新品的表现值得期待。

我们预计公司可以实现其2019年收入增长低双位数的指引。基于可口可乐的强大创新力,公司将继续改善产品组合。我们认为中国食品收入增长和盈利能力增强的可见度较高。因此我们上调投资评级至“买入”,上调目标价至4.30港元,相当于23.9倍、21.4倍和19.0倍2019年、2020年和2021年市盈率。

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